“All forecasts are wrong, but some are useful”

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Man speaking

Intellectual excellence is one of the cornerstones of the ELP project, yet it remains difficult and subjective to judge whether one’s analysis is better than another’s. What or who should we trust? Complicated quantitative models or the birds’ eye view of philosophers?

Which discipline is best equipped to approach a problem? There is no clear answer to these questions. There is one approach that makes intellectual judgement comparable: who is a better forecaster? After all, an analysis is only as good as much it can be used to describe reality and gain some insight about the future. Will customs control be reintroduced on the Irish island next year? Will North Korea test a solid fuel ICBM by the end of this year? These are examples of pressing questions with highly uncertain answers.  forecasts 

This fall a group of ELP fellows and alumni are participating in an online training in forecasting methodologies. Half of the group will receive the training in October and other half next February. They all will work on the same set of forecasting questions week by week and their performances will be compared – thus the efficiency of the training can be measured. The trainers are Béla Kuslits, sociologist and ecological economist and Dániel Vattay, trainer and psychotherapist. The questions explored during the training semester will be answered by reality thus the performance of all participants can be measured and ranked.  Forecasting is not just an intellectual challenge, but also a competitive game that is very entertaining for those who prepare to be leaders in uncertain times.

forecasts 

Article by
Bela KUSLITS